The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) will roll out its new impact-based forecast (IBF) for severe winds beginning July, the agency announced during a media workshop on Saturday.
What is the impact-based forecast?
The IBF is a system that projects the severity of damage extreme weather events may bring to specific localities. It identifies where a weather-related hazard, like severe winds, may occur and suggests appropriate actions that a city or municipality could follow three to five days before the event happens.
PAGASA Deputy Administrator Roy Badilla said the upcoming issuance of the “Severe Winds IBF” represents the state weather bureau’s effort to improve risk communication and enable local actors to prepare ahead. “Instead of simply telling people what weather to expect, we are moving towards explaining what those weather conditions could mean for communities, who may be affected, what the likely impacts are, and what the actions should be taken before hazard becomes disaster,” he said.
Complementing existing forecasts
The IBF will complement and be released alongside PAGASA's regular weather forecasts, advisories, and bulletins. Under the Multi-Hazard Impact-based Forecasting and Early Warning System (MHIBFEWS) project, PAGASA is piloting four IBFs for severe winds, rain-induced landslides, storm surge, and flooding in Tuguegarao; Legazpi; Palo, Leyte; and New Bataan, Davao De Oro.
PAGASA Weather Services and MHIBFEWS chief Thelma Cinco said the bureau hopes to do a similar nationwide rollout for the Storm Surge IBF after the Severe Winds IBF. “(For) storm surge, we started with Palo (in Leyte), but we’re trying to have it nationwide. It takes time so perhaps next year, it would be available. There’s a plan to have it next year,” she said in a separate interview.
From hazard-based to impact-based
The IBF shifts away from “hazard-based” forecast and answers what the weather “will do” instead of simply identifying what it “will be.” By doing so, it enables communities and local government units to plan and make “risk-informed decisions” before the cyclone hits their area. These anticipatory actions may range from conducting preemptive evacuation, early harvesting, house strengthening, up to releasing emergency funds.
A PAGASA-issued IBF assesses the risk of a hazard (e.g., severe winds, storm surge, flooding or landslide) to a city or municipality based on its exposure and vulnerability to it. The potential damage is then categorized and color-coded depending on four “levels of impact severity” from minimal (green), minor (yellow), significant (orange) to severe (red).
Lessons from past typhoons
The weather bureau said recent extreme events, such as Super Typhoons Yolanda and Odette, have highlighted the scale of losses when early actions are insufficient or delayed. In a 2022 report, the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction said countries with multi-hazard early warning systems lowered disaster-related mortality compared to countries without them.
