US Importers and Consumers Shouldered Vast Majority of 2025 Tariff Costs, Study Finds
A comprehensive study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has revealed that tariffs imposed on imported goods by the Trump administration in 2025 overwhelmingly burdened US importers and consumers, rather than overseas exporters as intended. The research, released on Thursday, February 12, 2026, indicates that nearly 90 percent of the economic impact from these tariffs was absorbed domestically.
High Pass-Through Rates to US Prices
According to the paper authored by staff economists at the New York Fed and a Columbia University economist, as much as 94 percent of new tariffs in the first eight months of 2025 were passed on to US importers and consumers. This share remained elevated at 92 percent from September to October and 86 percent in November, demonstrating a consistent pattern throughout the year.
"We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on US firms and consumers," stated the study. "These findings are consistent with two other studies that report high pass-through of tariffs to US import prices."
Significant Increases in Tariff Rates and Import Prices
The study further detailed that the average tariff rate on imported goods in the US surged from 2.6 percent at the beginning of 2025 to 13 percent by the end of the year. This dramatic rise contributed to US import prices for goods subject to the average tariff increasing by 11 percent more than those for goods not affected by tariffs.
In terms of revenue, the US Department of Homeland Security collected $287 billion in customs duties, taxes, and fees in 2025, marking a staggering 192 percent increase compared to the previous year. Specifically, the US Customs and Border Protection gathered over $200 billion in tariffs between January 20 and December 15, 2025, facilitated by more than 40 executive orders implemented by the Trump administration.
Expert Commentary on Tariff Impacts
Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Mansfield Foundation, highlighted the study's implications in a social media post, noting that it confirms what has long been suspected: US consumers and businesses ultimately pay the costs of such tariffs. This analysis underscores the complex dynamics of trade policies and their direct effects on the domestic economy.
