OPEC Affirms Unchanged Global Oil Demand Projections Through 2027
In a significant announcement on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revealed that it is maintaining its existing forecasts for worldwide oil demand growth in both 2026 and 2027. This decision, detailed in OPEC's February monthly oil market report, underscores a stable outlook for the petroleum sector amid evolving global economic conditions.
Steady Growth Figures Highlight Robust Demand Trends
According to the report, OPEC projects a "healthy" increase in global oil demand of 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year for 2026. This is followed by a slightly lower but still substantial growth of 1.3 million bpd year-on-year in 2027. Notably, these figures remain unchanged from the previous month's assessment, indicating consistency in OPEC's analytical perspective.
The breakdown of this demand reveals a clear geographical divide. In the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, oil demand is anticipated to grow by approximately 150,000 bpd year-on-year in 2026. In contrast, non-OECD nations are forecast to experience a much more significant expansion, with demand expected to rise by about 1.2 million bpd year-on-year during the same period.
Key Drivers Behind the Sustained Demand Surge
OPEC's report attributes the persistent growth in oil demand to several critical factors, particularly in non-OECD regions. Strong air travel demand and healthy road mobility—including on-road diesel usage and trucking activities—are cited as primary contributors. Additionally, robust industrial, construction, and agricultural sectors in these countries are playing a pivotal role in fueling the upward trend.
Looking ahead to 2027, the global oil demand is expected to continue its healthy yearly growth trajectory. The report emphasizes that non-OECD countries will account for the majority of this global increase, reinforcing their growing influence in the energy market. This trend highlights the shifting dynamics of oil consumption, with emerging economies driving much of the future demand.
OPEC's steadfast forecasts provide valuable insights for stakeholders in the energy sector, from investors to policymakers, as they navigate the complexities of global oil markets in the coming years.
