The year 2025 served as a brutal wake-up call for the province of Cebu, which endured a devastating one-two punch of natural disasters. A powerful earthquake was followed weeks later by the onslaught of Typhoon Tino, internationally known as Kalmaegi. This compounded crisis exposed significant gaps in the region's preparedness, infrastructure resilience, and emergency coordination, pushing local leaders to declare it a pivotal turning point.
The Seismic Shock and Its Structural Lessons
On September 30, 2025, a magnitude 6.9 earthquake struck northern Cebu, shaking the island to its core. The tremor displaced thousands of families and damaged tens of thousands of homes, with official situation reports documenting 753,317 people affected across Central and Eastern Visayas. The disaster resulted in more than 70 fatalities and approximately 1,300 injuries, according to the Office of Civil Defense and the NDRRMC.
The quake delivered a hard lesson emphasized by Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) Director Teresito Bacolcol. He stated that "when buildings collapse during Intensity 7 shaking, it’s not the earthquake that kills people—it’s the failure of the structure." Buildings constructed according to the updated National Building Code generally withstood the shaking, highlighting a dangerous structural divide with older constructions in downtown Cebu that now require assessment and retrofitting.
Three months later, Phivolcs identified the source: the offshore Bogo Bay Fault, an active strike-slip fault running through Bogo City. Director Bacolcol warned that faults dormant for long periods can accumulate energy, potentially leading to stronger seismic events, making preparedness a non-negotiable routine.
Compounding Calamity: Typhoon Tino's Flooding Fury
Before Cebu could recover from the earthquake, Typhoon Tino (Kalmaegi) struck, bringing severe flooding and widespread business disruption. This second disaster sharpened the lesson that catastrophes compound each other, and weak planning accelerates the damage.
Jun Muntuerto, vice chairman of the Cebu City Flood and Drainage Council, issued a stark warning. He said Cebu was entering an "urban failure pattern" similar to Jakarta's, citing lost rivers, occupied floodplains, and watershed degradation. He pointed to Iloilo as a positive counterexample, where unified leadership focused on master-plan discipline and river restoration. For Cebu, Muntuerto stressed the issue had shifted from development preference to sheer survival.
Key Lessons and the Path Forward for Cebu
The twin tragedies of 2025 forged several critical lessons for Cebu's public and private sectors:
- Coordination is a Survival System: Business chambers like the Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) and Mandaue Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI) warned that fragmented responses magnify losses, calling for institutionalized coordination.
- Build Back Better Means Confirming Where to Build: Experts like architect Daryl Balmoria-Garcia warned that hillside developments and altered watersheds are "tragedies waiting to happen," necessitating strict zoning and risk-based planning.
- Governance and Credibility Matter: CCCI president Jay Yuvallos linked political noise and governance concerns to dampened business sentiment, underscoring the need for transparency and reform as part of community resilience.
- Temporary Fixes Are Not Resilience: Cebu City Mayor Nestor Archival emphasized this point after securing nearly P200 million to permanently rehabilitate bridges damaged by Typhoon Tino, stating that temporary passability is not safety.
- Protecting MSMEs Means Ensuring Continuity: Business groups stressed that disruptions to power and logistics halt production, making business continuity planning essential, not just disaster relief.
The common thread from 2025 was unmistakable: disasters do not wait for recovery to finish. For Cebu, true resilience must be an ecosystem—where the public sector, private sector, and communities move in sync. The agenda for 2026 and beyond is clear: institutionalize coordination, enforce risk-based planning, commit to permanent infrastructure rehabilitation, and pursue governance reforms. The next shock, as Cebu learned, rarely waits for the last one to end.
