Filipinos greeted the year 2026 with diminished optimism, as hope for the coming twelve months plunged to its lowest point in sixteen years. This sobering finding comes from the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, which tracks the nation's sentiment at each year's close.
Survey Highlights a Clear Decline in Optimism
The nationwide poll, which involved face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults from November 24 to 30, 2025, was made public on December 31. It found that while a majority of 89 percent of adult Filipinos entered the New Year with hope, this figure marks a concerning drop. This rating is down from 90 percent in 2024 and a significant fall from 96 percent in 2023. Notably, this 89-percent level matches the lowest recorded since 2009.
On the flip side, the share of citizens who approached 2026 with fear climbed to 11 percent. This is the highest level of recorded apprehension in 16 years, a stark jump from just three percent in 2023. This increase points to a growing sense of public unease as the country closed the chapter on 2025.
Regional and Demographic Breakdown of the Results
The decline in optimism was not felt evenly across the archipelago. The survey, which sampled 300 respondents each from Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao, revealed distinct regional patterns:
- Visayas: Optimism here slipped to 85 percent, a two-point decrease from 87 percent at the end of 2024.
- Mindanao: This region experienced a sharper five-point decline, with hope falling to 84 percent from 89 percent.
- Balance Luzon: Hope remained highest in this area at 92 percent, showing little change from the previous year.
- Metro Manila: Optimism stood at 90 percent, also largely steady compared to 2024.
The survey also uncovered a strong link between Christmas expectations and New Year sentiment. Among those who anticipated a happy Christmas, 92 percent entered 2026 with hope. This compares to 83 percent among those who expected a neutral Christmas and 79 percent among those who foresaw a sad holiday season. Overall, 68 percent of Filipinos expected a happy Christmas, while 7 percent expected a sad one, and 25 percent anticipated it to be neither.
By educational attainment, hope for the New Year was generally higher among those with more schooling, but declines were observed across most groups. Optimism among college graduates fell to 91 percent from 96 percent, while hope among elementary graduates dropped to 86 percent from 89 percent. Levels remained steady for those with some senior high school education and junior high school graduates.
What This Means for the National Mood
The SWS data provides a crucial snapshot of the Philippine public's mindset at a pivotal time. The consistent downward trend from the high of 2023, culminating in a 16-year low for hope and a 16-year high for fear, signals a notable shift in the national mood. This growing caution among Filipinos as they face a new year will likely be a key point of discussion for social observers, economists, and policymakers alike as 2026 unfolds.
