The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has issued a forecast indicating the potential formation of two low-pressure areas (LPAs) near the Philippines in the days leading up to the Valentine's weekend. This projection was detailed in the Tropical Cyclone Threat Potential Forecast posted on Pagasa's official website on Wednesday, February 11, 2026.
Forecast Details and Projections
According to the weather bureau, the possible LPAs are projected to develop in the vicinity of the southern part of Palawan and near the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). However, Pagasa has clarified that these systems have not yet formed and are currently part of projection models based on atmospheric analysis.
Expert Insights from Pagasa
In an interview, Ana Dumdum, a weather specialist at Pagasa-Visayas, emphasized that the forecast remains speculative at this stage. "Projection forecast pa lang na. Naay possible circulation, but karon na analysis less pa siya mo-develop," Dumdum stated, highlighting that current data suggests a low likelihood of significant development into cyclones.
Dumdum further noted that for the week extending through February 17, 2026, the chances of any cyclone forming or entering the PAR remain minimal. This assessment is based on ongoing monitoring of weather patterns and atmospheric conditions.
Public Advisory and Monitoring
Pagasa continues to actively monitor the situation and has urged the public to stay informed through official bulletins for any updates or changes in the forecast. The agency stresses the importance of vigilance, especially during periods of potential weather disturbances, to ensure community safety and preparedness.
While the forecast points to possible LPAs, Pagasa reassures that the risk of these disturbances intensifying into tropical cyclones is currently low. Residents are advised to follow updates from reliable sources and heed any warnings issued by authorities as the situation evolves.
